A Future for My Birthday
Between May 5 to June 2, the number of COVID-19 cases tracked by the CDC within the United States and territories increased from 1,200,000 to more than 1,800,000, more than 600,000 new cases.
Worse, daily plotting of the numbers shows a rather distressingly regular upward increase through the past 28 days that looks to me like about a 20-degree angle into the future:
Indulging myself, I decided to calculate the number of cases every 28 days into the future by following this same 20-degree inclination.
This projection is not scientific; I am no mathematician; I know very little of statistics, and I am ignoring the fact that more cases most likely means a geometrical, even an exponential, rather than an arithmetical, progression in the number of transmissions, but, well, you know.
So, for my own bemusement, I did the calculations. After all, this is my birthday!
By June 30, the same increase of 600,000 new cases every twenty-four days means that there will be 2,400,000 cases. [UPDATE: on June 25, five days earlier than my left-field prediction, the US exceeded 240,000 cases. DAMN, this is not good.] If each case were a mile, traveling the distance would require 96 trips around the circumference of the Earth or five trips back and forth to the moon.
By July 28, the same increase of 600,000 new cases every twenty-four days means that there will be 3,000,000 cases. The average American worker makes about $1,400,000 in a lifetime. The number of cases then will outnumber by more than half the number of dollars that most workers will ever earn.
By August 25, the same increase of 600,000 new cases every twenty-four days means that there will be 3,000,000 cases. 3,000,000 is nearly 1% of the current American population.
By September 22, the same increase of 600,000 new cases every twenty-four days means that there will be 3,600,000 cases. If each case were a day, nearly ten thousand years would have to pass.
By October 20, the same increase of 600,000 new cases every twenty-four days means that there will be 4,200,000 cases. If every case were a mile per hour, we’d be traveling at 120 times the speed of Voyager I and II leaving our solar system.
By November 3, fourteen days later and currently my favorite future date because we can vote, the same increase means that by Election Day, there will be 4,500,000 cases.
I don’t mean to scare anyone because most likely, you’re frightened enough, but may I recommend with the WHO and the CDC that you take precautions to protect other people and yourself against contracting COVID-19?
The only present I want is this present, the one we live in, so feel free to contribute. You know, I’m just sayin.’